Eur/USD Big Picture: Weekly Preview (22-26.04.2024)

EurUsd Big Picture - Quantum Strikes
EurUsd Big Picture - Quantum Strikes

This week promises a series of high-impact economic releases that could significantly sway the forex markets, particularly the EURUSD pair. Here’s a detailed preview of the expected fundamentals, with insights on their potential implications:

Monday, April 23

  • EUR HCOB Manufacturing and Services PMI (Apr): Both indicators are crucial for assessing the health of the Eurozone’s economic sectors. Manufacturing remains below the expansion threshold of 50, indicating contraction, while services are just above it, suggesting slight growth. A worse-than-expected outcome could pressure the EUR.
  • USD S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI (Apr): Similar PMI data for the U.S. shows both sectors in slight expansion. These metrics will provide insights into economic resilience, influencing USD strength.
  • USD New Home Sales (Mar): A significant indicator of economic health through consumer confidence and construction activity. Expected to show a slight decline MoM, which might indicate cooling in the housing market but not necessarily a downturn.

Tuesday, April 24

  • EUR Ifo Business Climate (Apr): This is a leading indicator of economic health from one of the largest economies in the Eurozone, Germany. Lower expectations could indicate growing pessimism among businesses, potentially weakening the EUR.
  • USD Durable Goods Orders (Mar): Expected to show growth, suggesting robust economic activity and consumer confidence in the U.S. economy. Strength here would likely support the USD.

Wednesday, April 25

  • EUR GfK Consumer Confidence (May): A key gauge of consumer sentiment in Germany, forecasted to improve slightly. Positive surprises here could support the EUR.
  • USD GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q1): A critical indicator of overall economic health, expected to show strong growth. A robust GDP figure could significantly bolster the USD.
  • USD Jobless Claims and Goods Trade Balance (Mar): Continuation of stable jobless claims and an examination of trade deficits will provide further clues on the economic standing of the U.S.

Thursday, April 26

  • EUR Unemployment Rate and Retail Sales (Q1, Mar): Unemployment and retail sales figures will shed light on the consumer economy in the Eurozone. Positive data could strengthen the EUR, though the expected figures suggest only modest improvements.
  • EUR Bank Austria Manufacturing PMI (Apr): Continues to signal contraction. This could weigh on the EUR if the trend continues.
  • USD Core PCE Price Index and Personal Income/Spending (Mar): Inflation metrics and personal spending figures are pivotal for understanding consumer inflation and spending behavior, crucial for Fed policy decisions.
  • USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr): An improvement in sentiment could suggest consumer resilience, bolstering the USD.

Overall Impact on EURUSD:

The upcoming week’s data release could potentially strengthen the USD if the economic figures come out robust, indicating ongoing recovery and stability. For the EUR, the data might portray a mixed economic scenario, with potential weak spots in manufacturing but modest gains in consumer sentiment and spending. If the USD data outshines the EUR releases, we might see further downtrend pressure on EURUSD. However, any significant misses in U.S. data or positive surprises in Eurozone data could temper this view. Traders should watch these releases closely, as they will provide critical clues on the economic trajectory of both regions, impacting forex market dynamics significantly.