Eur/USD Big Picture: Weekly Review (4-8.03.2024)

EurUsd Big Picture - Quantum Strikes
EurUsd Big Picture - Quantum Strikes

The EUR/USD pair showcased a bullish trend over the week of March 4th to 8th, 2024, opening at 1.0842 and closing at a higher note of 1.0937. The weekly chart revealed a bullish candle with no downside wick, indicating strong buying pressure throughout the week. Notably, the candle opened above the 89EMA, suggesting underlying bullish sentiment, yet remained under the 200EMA, highlighting potential resistance ahead.

Weekly Trading Dynamics:

  • Opening: 1.0842
  • Low: 1.0838
  • High: 1.0982
  • Close: 1.0937
  • Average True Range (ATR): 144 pips

The overall trend for the week was decidedly bullish, with the pair achieving a high of 1.0982 before settling at 1.0937 by the week’s close.

Fundamental Influences:

Several high-impact economic releases influenced the EUR/USD price action throughout the week:

  1. EUR Unemployment Change (Feb): The unemployment change in the Eurozone showed a better-than-expected decrease, with actual figures coming in at -7.452K against a consensus of -5K. This positive development likely contributed to the bullish sentiment around the EUR.
  2. EUR HCOB Services PMI (Feb): The Services PMI outperformed expectations, registering at 50.2 against a forecast of 50, indicating slight expansion in the services sector, which may have supported the euro’s strength.
  3. USD S&P Global Services PMI (Feb): The U.S. Services PMI also exceeded expectations, posting a figure of 52.3 against a forecast of 51.3, suggesting robustness in the services sector but had a mixed impact on the USD.
  4. USD ISM Services PMI (Feb): Contrarily, the ISM Services PMI slightly underperformed, coming in at 52.6 against a forecast of 53, which may have contributed to the USD’s weakness against the EUR.
  5. EUR Retail Sales MoM (Jan): Retail sales matched expectations, showing a modest increase of 0.1%, indicating stable consumer spending in the Eurozone.
  6. USD ADP Employment Change (Feb) and JOLTs Job Openings (Jan): Both indicators showed the U.S. job market’s resilience, with ADP Employment Change and JOLTs Job Openings nearly meeting expectations, suggesting a healthy labor market.
  7. EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision: The ECB maintained its interest rate at 4.5%, in line with expectations, stabilizing the EUR but causing minimal immediate impact due to the anticipated decision.
  8. USD Non-Farm Payrolls (Feb) and Unemployment Rate (Feb): The NFP showed significant job additions of 275K against a forecast of 200K, initially boosting the USD. However, the unemployment rate’s unexpected rise to 3.9% softened the USD’s gains, contributing to the EUR/USD’s bullish retracement.

Conclusion:

The week was characterized by a series of economic releases that painted a picture of a strengthening Eurozone economy juxtaposed with a resilient but slightly weakening U.S. labor market. The EUR/USD’s bullish trend was primarily fueled by better-than-expected economic indicators from the Eurozone and mixed signals from the U.S., culminating in a week that saw the pair making notable gains.

As we move forward, traders and investors will closely monitor upcoming economic data and geopolitical events that could influence the EUR/USD’s direction. The interplay between Eurozone stability and U.S. economic resilience remains a key focal point for market participants.

Trading our dreams into reality,

The Quantum Strikes Team