EUR/USD Technical Analysis – March 25, 2024

Market Overview: The EUR/USD pair started the week cautiously at an opening rate of 1.0804, reflecting traders’ hesitancy amid fluctuating market sentiments. As the day progresses, technical indicators are expected to significantly influence the currency pair’s movement.

Today’s Key Technical Levels

  • Pivot Point: 1.08254
  • Resistance Levels: R1 at 1.08492, R2 at 1.08918, R3 at 1.09156
  • Support Levels: S1 at 1.07828, S2 at 1.07590, S3 at 1.07164

Market Dynamics: During the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair showed resilience, climbing 20 pips from its low and encountering minor resistance near the day’s Pivot Point at 1.0822. This suggests a market waiting for clearer signals before committing to more substantial positions.

Previous Day’s Performance: The pair reached highs of 1.08680 and lows of 1.08022, indicating a bearish sentiment as it hovers just above this month’s low of 1.07980.

Technical Insights

  • Short-Term Outlook: The slight recovery towards the Pivot Point may offer a chance for short-term bullish corrections. However, the overall mood remains bearish, particularly if the pair stays below the R1 level.
  • Long-Term Outlook: The EUR/USD is testing significant support and resistance levels, with current trends suggesting that bearish forces are prevailing. A break below this month’s low could lead to further declines.
  • Indicator Analysis: The pair is at a critical juncture, with the daily pivot acting as a key indicator. A sustained move above this level could suggest a shift towards bullish sentiment, while failure to maintain could reinforce bearish trends.

Market Synopsis Update: The EUR/USD maintains its ground above the 1.0800 mark amid a subdued start to the week, with the US Dollar retracting after its recent surge. The market’s mood remains mixed, with upcoming Federal Reserve statements highly anticipated.

  • RSI: The RSI on the 4-hour chart has fallen below 40, indicating bearish momentum. The pair’s recent close below the 200-period SMA suggests potential for further declines or consolidation.
  • Support and Resistance: The critical level at 1.0800, corresponding to the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, stands as a significant support. Below this, the pair could target the 1.0750 area. Conversely, if the 1.0800 support holds, we might see a push towards the 1.0830-1.0840 resistance zone and potentially higher levels.

Recent Market Developments: After a significant rise mid-week, EUR/USD turned downward, closing Thursday significantly lower. The resurgence in USD strength, spurred by positive US sector growth data, has placed the pair under pressure.

Market Sentiment and Outlook: The recent dip in the 10-year US Treasury bond yield could slow the USD’s momentum, potentially aiding EUR/USD in curbing further losses as the week ends. Traders should watch for shifts in market sentiment and upcoming economic indicators for more definitive trading cues.

Trading our dreams into reality,
Mihai Paul Olteanu