Fundamentals of the Day: Monday, April 15, 2024

Today’s economic calendar highlights several key indicators from the United States that will have significant implications for the USD and potentially influence the broader market dynamics. Investors and traders alike should closely monitor these releases as they provide critical insights into consumer behavior, manufacturing health, and overall economic momentum in the U.S. Here’s an in-depth look at the expected data:

USD Retail Sales YoY (March)

  • Expected: 1.5%
  • Previous: 2.5%

Year-over-year Retail Sales for March are anticipated to show a slowdown from the previous year, with expectations set at 1.5% compared to last year’s 2.5%. This indicator reflects the overall health of the consumer sector over a longer period and a significant decrease may suggest that consumer spending is cooling, which could have bearish implications for the USD.

USD Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM (March)

  • Expected: 0.3%
  • Previous: 0.2%

This monthly measure of Retail Sales, excluding gas and auto sales, is expected to see a slight increase to 0.3% from 0.2%. It provides a clearer view of underlying consumer spending trends by removing volatile components like gas and autos, which are often subject to price swings independent of general consumer sentiment.

USD Retail Sales MoM (March)

  • Expected: 0.6%
  • Previous: 0.3%

March’s month-over-month Retail Sales are predicted to double from the previous month, indicating a potential rebound in consumer spending. A stronger than expected figure here could signal robust consumer confidence and spending capacity, bolstering the USD.

USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (April)

  • Expected: -20.9
  • Previous: -9

The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected to show a significant contraction with a forecast of -20.9, down sharply from -9. This index is a key measure of manufacturing sector health in the New York area, and such a steep decline might indicate worsening conditions in the manufacturing sector, potentially pressuring the USD.

USD Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (March)

  • Expected: 0.3%
  • Previous: 0.4%

Retail sales excluding auto sales are forecasted to decrease slightly to 0.3% from 0.4%. This data strips out auto sales, which can be volatile and distort the broader trend in consumer spending. A decline here, albeit small, could suggest a cautious approach by consumers, reflecting broader economic uncertainties.

Market Impact and Trading Considerations

The combination of these releases will provide a comprehensive picture of U.S. economic activity in March and April. Key areas to watch include:

  • Consumer Spending Trends: Changes in retail sales figures will be closely analyzed for signs of consumer resilience or caution.
  • Manufacturing Sector Health: The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index will offer insights into the industrial component of the economy, which has implications for employment and GDP growth.
  • USD Reaction: Collectively, these data points will influence market sentiment towards the USD. Stronger-than-expected retail sales could uplift the USD, while weaker manufacturing data might counteract some of that optimism.

Today’s fundamentals will play a critical role in shaping market expectations for the next Federal Reserve moves and overall economic trajectory in the coming quarters. Traders should prepare for potential volatility around these releases and adjust their strategies accordingly.