Fundamentals of the Day: Wednesday, May 15, 2024

Daily Fundamentals - Quantum Strikes
Daily Fundamentals - Quantum Strikes

In today’s fundamental analysis, several significant economic events are set to impact the Forex market. These events provide critical insights into the economic health and policy directions in both the Eurozone and the United States.

1. EUR Employment Change QoQ (Q1)

  • Release Time: May 15, 12:00 (GMT)
  • Impact: High
  • Previous: 0.3%
  • Consensus: 0.3%

The quarterly Employment Change measures the change in the number of employed people, providing a key indicator of economic health. A stable reading at 0.3% aligns with expectations, suggesting consistent job growth in the Eurozone. This could support the EUR if the employment data meets or exceeds expectations, reflecting a robust labor market.

2. EUR Employment Change YoY (Q1)

  • Release Time: May 15, 12:00 (GMT)
  • Impact: High
  • Previous: 1.2%
  • Consensus: 1.3%

The annual Employment Change offers a broader view of labor market trends. The consensus at 1.3%, slightly above the previous 1.2%, indicates a positive trend in employment growth over the past year. If the actual figure meets or exceeds this expectation, it could further bolster confidence in the Eurozone’s economic recovery, positively influencing the EUR.

3. USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (May)

  • Release Time: May 15, 15:30 (GMT)
  • Impact: High
  • Previous: -14.3
  • Consensus: -10

This index measures manufacturing activity in New York State, providing early insights into the manufacturing sector’s health. An improvement from -14.3 to the consensus of -10 suggests a less severe contraction. If the actual reading is better than expected, it could indicate a recovering manufacturing sector, potentially supporting the USD.

4. USD Inflation Rate YoY (April)

  • Release Time: May 15, 15:30 (GMT)
  • Impact: High
  • Previous: 3.5%
  • Consensus: 3.4%

The year-over-year Inflation Rate measures the change in prices for goods and services. A slight decrease to 3.4% from the previous 3.5% suggests moderating inflation. If the actual figure matches or is lower than the consensus, it could alleviate some pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates, potentially weakening the USD.

5. USD Retail Sales YoY (April)

  • Release Time: May 15, 15:30 (GMT)
  • Impact: High
  • Previous: 4%
  • Consensus: 3.8%

Retail Sales YoY indicates consumer spending trends. A slight decrease to 3.8% from the previous 4% suggests steady, albeit slightly slowing, consumer spending. If the actual number is higher than expected, it might boost the USD as it reflects consumer confidence and economic strength.

6. USD Core Inflation Rate MoM (April)

  • Release Time: May 15, 15:30 (GMT)
  • Impact: High
  • Previous: 0.4%
  • Consensus: 0.3%

Core Inflation excludes volatile items like food and energy, providing a clearer picture of underlying inflation trends. A decrease to 0.3% from 0.4% suggests subdued inflation pressures. If the actual rate is lower than expected, it could signal a slower pace of rate hikes by the Fed, potentially weakening the USD.

7. USD Retail Sales MoM (April)

  • Release Time: May 15, 15:30 (GMT)
  • Impact: High
  • Previous: 0.7%
  • Consensus: 0.4%

The month-over-month Retail Sales measure the change in total sales at retail stores. A decrease from 0.7% to 0.4% suggests slowing retail activity. If the actual figure is lower than expected, it could indicate weaker consumer spending, potentially weighing on the USD.

8. USD Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (April)

  • Release Time: May 15, 15:30 (GMT)
  • Impact: High
  • Previous: 1.1%
  • Consensus: 0.2%

This measure excludes auto sales, providing a clearer view of retail trends. A significant drop from 1.1% to 0.2% indicates a substantial slowdown. A lower-than-expected figure could negatively impact the USD by signaling weaker consumer demand.

9. USD Inflation Rate MoM (April)

  • Release Time: May 15, 15:30 (GMT)
  • Impact: High
  • Previous: 0.4%
  • Consensus: 0.4%

This monthly measure of inflation provides insight into short-term price changes. A steady rate at 0.4% aligns with expectations. Any deviation from the consensus could impact USD strength, with higher-than-expected inflation potentially supporting the currency.

10. USD Core Inflation Rate YoY (April)

  • Release Time: May 15, 15:30 (GMT)
  • Impact: High
  • Previous: 3.8%
  • Consensus: 3.6%

Year-over-year Core Inflation provides a long-term view of price changes, excluding volatile items. A decrease to 3.6% from 3.8% suggests easing inflation pressures. A lower-than-expected reading could reduce rate hike expectations, potentially weakening the USD.

11. USD CPI (April)

  • Release Time: May 15, 15:30 (GMT)
  • Impact: High
  • Previous: 312.33
  • Consensus: 313.76

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average change in prices over time. An increase to 313.76 from 312.33 indicates rising prices. A higher-than-expected CPI could support the USD by reinforcing inflation concerns.

12. USD CPI s.a. (April)

  • Release Time: May 15, 15:30 (GMT)
  • Impact: High
  • Previous: 312.23
  • Consensus: 313.2

The seasonally adjusted CPI offers a clearer view of inflation trends by accounting for seasonal variations. An increase to 313.2 from 312.23 suggests rising prices. A higher-than-expected figure could bolster the USD.

13. USD Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM (April)

  • Release Time: May 15, 15:30 (GMT)
  • Impact: High
  • Previous: 1%
  • Consensus: 0.2%

Excluding gas and auto sales, this measure provides a more stable view of retail trends. A sharp decline from 1% to 0.2% indicates a significant slowdown in retail activity. A lower-than-expected reading could signal weaker consumer spending, potentially weighing on the USD.

Conclusion

Today’s economic releases present a mix of employment data from the Eurozone and a plethora of inflation and retail sales data from the United States. These indicators are crucial for Forex traders, as they provide insights into the economic health and potential policy responses from central banks.

Traders should stay alert to these high-impact releases to adjust their strategies accordingly. For continuous updates and detailed analysis, keep following QuantumStrikes.com.

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Mihai Paul Olteanu