EUR/USD Technical Analysis – May 15, 2024

EUR/USD Technical Analysis – May 15, 2024 - Quantum Strikes
EUR/USD Technical Analysis – May 15, 2024 - Quantum Strikes

Today’s technical analysis of the EUR/USD pair focuses on identifying key resistance and support levels, along with the prevailing market trends and indicators.

Resistance Levels

  • First Resistance: 1.0825 (May High, May 14)
    • This level is coincident with the intermediate 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
  • Second Resistance: 1.0885 (April High, April 9)
    • An important level marking the top seen last month.
  • Third Resistance: 1.0981 (March High, March 8)
    • Another significant peak from earlier this year.
  • Fourth Resistance: 1.0998 (Weekly High, January 11)
    • A notable weekly high just below the psychological threshold.
  • Psychological Threshold: 1.1000
    • A critical psychological barrier which, if breached, could signal strong bullish momentum.

Support Levels

  • First Support: 1.0649 (May Low, May 1)
    • A key low from earlier this month.
  • Second Support: 1.0601 (2024 Bottom, April 16)
    • The lowest level reached this year so far.
  • Third Support: 1.0516 (November 2023 Low, November 1)
    • A significant low from late last year.
  • Fourth Support: 1.0495 (Weekly Low, October 13, 2023)
    • An important weekly low from the previous year.
  • Fifth Support: 1.0448 (2023 Bottom, October 3)
    • The lowest point of the previous year.
  • Psychological Support: 1.0400
    • A round number milestone, often acting as a psychological barrier.

Current Market Trends

  • 4-Hour Chart Trend: The 4-hour chart reveals a consistent upward trend, indicating bullish momentum in the short term.
  • Immediate Resistance: The pair is facing an uphill hurdle at 1.0825, followed by the next level at 1.0885.
  • Initial Support: Contention is observed around the 200-SMA at 1.0737, followed by support at 1.0723.
  • Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI has climbed to about 68, approaching the overbought territory.

Technical Indicators

  • 100-Day SMA: At the resistance level of 1.0825, aligning with the May high.
  • 200-SMA: Providing support around 1.0737, reinforcing the significance of this level in the current market structure.
  • RSI: The current RSI reading of 68 suggests that the EUR/USD pair is nearing overbought conditions, potentially signaling a pullback or consolidation phase before further advances.

Analysis and Outlook

The EUR/USD pair has demonstrated a steady upward trajectory on the 4-hour chart, facing immediate resistance at the 1.0825 level. A successful breach of this resistance could pave the way towards higher targets, notably the 1.0885 mark, followed by the March peak of 1.0981 and the January high of 1.0998, culminating at the psychological level of 1.1000.

Conversely, if the pair experiences a downside correction, initial support is expected around the 200-SMA at 1.0737, with further support at 1.0723. A break below these levels could see the pair testing the May low of 1.0649 and potentially targeting the 2024 bottom of 1.0601. Beyond this, significant supports include the November 2023 low of 1.0516 and the October 2023 levels at 1.0495 and 1.0448, before reaching the psychological support of 1.0400.

In conclusion, the EUR/USD pair is navigating through a critical juncture with significant resistance and support levels in play. Traders should monitor these key levels and technical indicators closely to identify potential trading opportunities. The current upward trend and RSI readings suggest caution, as the pair approaches overbought conditions. Stay tuned to for continuous updates and detailed analysis on the Forex market.

Trading our dreams into reality,
Mihai Paul Olteanu